Note: Below is a description of the paper and not the actual abstract. This paper studies whether exchange rate expectations and overvaluations are predictors of currency crises using survey data for 26 countries in the last 13 years. The results suggest that overvaluation has predictive power...

This paper examines the efficiency of the forward yen/dollar market using micro survey data. Conventional tests of unbiasedness do not correspond directly to the zero-profit condition. Instead, we use the survey data to calculate potential profits of individual forecasters based on a natural...

We consider interactive epistemic models where individuals are described by both their "knowledge" and their "beliefs." Three intersubjective consistency conditions are examined: Intersubjective Caution (if an individual believes something to be common belief then he knows it to be common...