We examine the nature of stated subjective probabilities in a complex, evolving context in which true event probabilities are not within subjects' explicit information set. Specifically, we collect information on subjective expectations in a car race wherein participants must bet on a particular...

We examine the nature of stated subjective probabilities in a complex, evolving context in which true event probabilities are not within subjects' explicit information set. Specically, we collect information on subjective expectations in a car race wherein participants must bet on a particular...

This paper introduces the concept of range-dependent utility. Instead of reference dependence which evaluates outcomes relative to some reference point, we postulate dependence on a given lottery (set of lotteries) outcomes range. In this way the decision maker is a fully rational expected...

The following analysis is meant to contribute to a history of rational choice theory. More specifically, I provide a multi-layered account of rational choice theory in terms of its biography as a scientific object. I argue that its axiomatic version, choice theory traveled between different...

This article presents and experimentally tests a new method for measuring student risk preferences where monetary outcomes are not directly involved. The authors call this new method the Lazy Professor Risk Task (LPRT). This article compares the LPRT's results to popular conventional methods...