Search Results - subject:"Expert Forecast"

What do Professional Forecasters actually predict?

Nibbering, Didier; Paap, Richard; van der Wel, Michel - 2015

In this paper we study what professional forecasters actually explain. We use spectral analysis and state space modeling to decompose economic time series into a trend, a business-cycle, and an irregular component. To examine which components are captured by professional forecasters we regress...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011403556

What do professional forecasters actually predict?

Nibbering, Didier; Paap, Richard; Wel, Michel van der - 2015

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011305773

Probabilistic load forecasting via Quantile Regression Averaging of independent expert forecasts

Hong, Tao; Maciejowska, Katarzyna; Nowotarski, Jakub; … - Hugo Steinhaus Center for Stochastic Methods, … - 2014

Probabilistic load forecasting is becoming crucial in today's power systems planning and operations. We propose a novel methodology to compute interval forecasts of electricity demand, which applies a Quantile Regression Averaging (QRA) technique to a set of independent expert point forecasts....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010799028

Expert opinion versus expertise in forecasting

Franses, Philip Hans; McAleer, Michael; Legerstee, … - Faculteit der Economische Wetenschappen, Erasmus … - 2008

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010837791

Expert opinion versus expertise in forecasting

Franses, Ph.H.B.F.; McAleer, M.J.; Legerstee, R. - Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute - 2008

expert forecast that is based on an econometric model is replicable, and can be defined as a replicable expert forecast (REF …), whereas an expert opinion that is not based on an econometric model can be defined as a non-replicable expert forecast (Non … an econometric model. An expert forecast that is based on an econometric model is replicable, and can be defined as a …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005056580