Research has shown that aggregation of independent expert judgments significantly improves the quality of forecasts as compared to individual expert forecasts. This “wisdom of crowds” (WOC) has sparked substantial interest. However, previous studies on strengths and weaknesses of aggregation...

En este trabajo se describen los principales indicadores disponibles para realizar el seguimiento de la inversión en construcción y prever su evolución a corto plazo, en el caso español. Además, se presenta un procedimiento para la elaboración de previsiones a medio plazo de la inversión...

Deep and shallow uncertainty are defined and contrasted with regard to messaging the uncertainty about climate change. Deep uncertainty is often traced back to the writings of Frank Knight, where in fact it simply meant subjective probability. Although Knight envisioned a scientifically grounded...