We propose new tests of the martingale hypothesis based on generalized versions of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Cramer-von Mises tests. The tests are distribution free and allow for a weak drift in the null model. The methods do not require either smoothing parameters or bootstrap resampling for...

In this paper we use a test developed by Phillips et al. (2011) to identify a bubble in the gold market. We find that the price of gold followed an explosive price process between 2002 and 2012 interrupted only briefly by the subprime crisis in 2008. We also provide a theoretical foundation for...

Right-tailed unit root tests have proved promising for detecting exuberance in economic and financial activities. Like left-tailed tests, the limit theory and test performance are sensitive to the null hypothesis and the model specification used in parameter estimation. This paper aims to...

Right-tailed unit root tests have proved promising for detecting exuberance in economic and financial activities. Like left-tailed tests, the limit theory and test performance are sensitive to the null hypothesis and the model specification used in parameter estimation. This paper aims to...

Right-tailed unit root tests have proved promising for detecting exuberance in economic and …financial activities. Like left-tailed tests, the limit theory and test performance are sensitive to the null hypothesis and the model specifi…cation used in parameter estimation. This paper aims to...

Right-tailed unit root tests have proved promising for detecting exuberance in economic and financial activities. Like left-tailed tests, the limit theory and test performance are sensitive to the null hypothesis and the model specification used in parameter estimation. This paper aims to...

Right-tailed unit root tests have proved promising for detecting exuberance in economic and financial activities. Like left-tailed tests, the limit theory and test performance are sensitive to the null hypothesis and the model specification used in parameter estimation. This paper aims to...

Right-tailed unit root tests have proved promising for detecting exuberance in economic and Önancial activities. Like left-tailed tests, the limit theory and test performance are sensitive to the null hypothesis and the model speciÖcation used in parameter estimation. This paper aims to...