Cet article élabore une nouvelle méthodologie de datation des cycles financiers extrêmes. S?appuyant sur la théorie des valeurs extrêmes, il étend la « calculus rule » afin de détecter les pics et les creux exceptionnels. Appliquée sur des séries financières américaines...

The goal of this paper is to evaluate the hedging strategies performance of a range of copula and traditional methods for three spot and futures oil markets: WTI crude oil, propane and heating oil. Our contribution is two-fold. First, we model dependence structure between spot and futures oil...

The Basel Committee wrote in its update of the “Principles for the Sound Management of Operational Risk” in June 2011 that the frst line of defense is business line management. This underlines the continuous development from (ex-post) operational risk controlling to (ex-ante) operational...

Most tail index estimators are formulated under assumptions of weak serial dependence, but nevertheless are applied in practice to long-range dependent time series data. This issue arises because for many time series found in teletraffic and financial econometric applications, both heavy tails...

We discuss the existence and characterization of quasi-stationary distributions and Yaglom limits of self-similar Markov processes that reach 0 in finite time. By Yaglom limit, we mean the existence of a deterministic function g and a non-trivial probability measure ν such that the process...

Let X={X(s)}s∈S be an almost sure continuous stochastic process (S compact subset of Rd) in the domain of attraction of some max-stable process, with index function constant over S. We study the tail distribution of ∫SX(s)ds, which turns out to be of Generalized Pareto type with an extra...

We consider a random vector <Emphasis Type="BoldItalic">X, whose components are neither necessarily independent nor identically distributed. The fragility index (FI), if it exists, is defined as the limit of the expected number of exceedances among the components of <Emphasis Type="BoldItalic">X above a high threshold, given that there is at least...</emphasis></emphasis>