A flexible framework for the analysis of tail events is proposed. The framework contains tail moment measures that allow for Expected Shortfall (ES) estimation. Connecting the implied tail thickness of a family of distributions with the quantile and expectile estimation, a platform for risk...

We document that even though the normal distribution provides a good approximation to GDP fluctuations, it severely underpredicts "macroeconomic tail risks," that is, the frequency of large economic downturns. Using a multi-sector general equilibrium model, we show that the interplay of...

We construct a coherent theory of extreme macro instability, an important macro phenomenon most recently experienced in the United States in 2008-09. The model is then used to identify significant policymaking lessons from the Great Recession. The analysis is part of the ongoing GEM Project that...

Modeling extreme events is of paramount importance in various areas of science — biostatistics, climatology, finance, geology, and telecommunications, to name a few. Most of these application areas involve multivariate data. Estimation of the extreme value index plays a crucial role in...

Classical asset allocation methods have assumed that the distribution of asset returns is smooth, well behaved with stable statistical moments over time. The distribution is assumed to have constant moments with e.g., Gaussian distribution that can be conveniently parameterised by the first two...