This research forecasts peak call volume to allow a centralized call center to minimize staffing costs. A Gaussian copula is used to capture the dependence among nonnormal distributions. Peak call volume can be easily and more accurately predicted using the marginal probability distribution with...

We consider the problem of estimating the volatility of a financial asset from a time series record of length T. We believe the underlying volatility process is smooth, possibly stationary, and with potential abrupt changes due to market news. By drawing parallels between time series and...

This paper defines a risk-stability index (RSI) that takes into account the extreme dependence structure and the conditional probability of joint failure (CPJF) among risk factors in a portfolio. In combination, both the RSI and CPJF provide a valuable tool for analyzing risk from complementary...

By introducing the concept of conditional probability of joint failure (CPJF), and by proposing a new measure for the systemic impact of currency crises, we provide new insights into the different sources of currency crises. We conclude that financial openness helps to diminish the probability...

We introduce a new hybrid approach to joint estimation of Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) for high quantiles of return distributions. We investigate the relative performance of VaR and ES models using daily returns for sixteen stock market indices (eight from developed and eight...