Search Results - subject:"FORECAST EVALUATION"

Evaluating CPB's forecasts

Franses, Philip Hans - In: De economist : Netherlands economic review ; quarterly … 162 (2014) 3, pp. 215-221

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010529612

A new approach to model and forecast volatility based on extreme value of asset prices

Kumar, Dilip; Maheswaran, S. - In: International review of economics & finance : IREF 33 (2014), pp. 128-140

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010531271

Nowcasting GDP in real time : a density combination approach

Aastveit, Knut Are; Gerdrup, Karsten R.; Jore, Anne Sofie; … - In: Journal of business & economic statistics : JBES ; a … 32 (2014) 1, pp. 48-68

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010380480

Assessing the Forecast Properties of the CESifo World Economic Climate Indicator: Evidence for the Euro Area

Hülsewig, Oliver; Mayr, Johannes; Sorbe, Stéphane - 2007

This paper evaluates short-term forecasts of real GDP in the Euro area derived from the CESifo Economic Climate indicator (WES) in terms of forecast accuracy. We compare the forecast properties of the WES with those of monthly composite indicators. Considering the WES is interesting because (i)...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010312095

The Riskbank's forecasting performance

Andersson, Michael F.; Karlsson, Gustav; Svensson, Josef - 2007

This paper describes the official Riksbank forecasts for the period 2000-06. The forecast variables are those that are important for monetary policy analysis, i.e. inflation, GDP, productivity, employment, labour force, unemployment and financial variables such as interest rate and foreign...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010320753

Forecasting global flows

Skriner, Edith - 2007

The theory suggests that investment activities and monetary policy influence the development of the global business cycle. The oil price and other raw material prices also play a key role in the economic development and there is a co-movement among oil consumption and global output. Therefore,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010294037

The Accuracy and Efficiency of the Consensus Forecasts: A Further Application and Extension of the Pooled Approach

Ager, Philipp; Kappler, Marcus; Osterloh, Steffen - 2007

In this paper we analyze the macroeconomic forecasts of the Consensus Forecasts for 12 countries over the period from 1996 to 2006 regarding bias and information efficiency. A pooled approach is employed which permits the evaluation of all forecasts for each target variable over 24 horizons...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010297948

Projecting the Medium-Term: Outcomes and Errors for GDP Growth

Kappler, Marcus - 2007

-term forecasting? the production function approach?in terms of predictive performance. For this purpose, a forecast evaluation for the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010297969

Evaluating real-time forecasts in real-time

Dijk, D.J.C. van; Franses, Ph.H.B.F.; Ravazzolo, F. - Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute - 2007

be used as actuals in current forecast evaluation. We allow for structural changes in the regression parameters to … actuals in current forecast evaluation. We allow for structural changes in the regression parameters to accommodate benchmark … Forecasters and the Greenbook. Keywords: Data revision, forecast evaluation, parameter uncertainty, Bayesian estimation …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005450915

Optimality Tests for Multi-Horizon Forecasts.

Capistrán, Carlos - Banco de México - 2007

decrease with the horizon). The tests complement existing methods of forecast evaluation, such as Mincer-Zarnowitz-type tests …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004974505