We propose two simple evaluation methods for time-varying density forecasts of continuous higher-dimensional random variables. Both methods are based on the probability integral transformation for unidimensional forecasts. The first method tests multinormal densities and relies on the rotation...

This paper develops and applies tools to assess multivariate aspects of Bayesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model forecasts and their ability to predict comovements among key macroeconomic variables. We construct posterior predictive checks to evaluate conditional and...

We examine asymmetry in the loss function of Japanese corporate executives in their output growth forecasts and test for rationality of the forecasts under the assumption of a possibly asymmetric loss function. We find evidence of asymmetry and support for rationality under an asymmetric loss...

We evaluate the quality of OECD's and IMF's forecasts for real GDP growth and for GDP expenditure components. We use a scaled statistic to compare the prediction models' performance across GDP components with different volatilities and decompose the GDP forecast error into the corresponding...

In this paper, we evaluate the role of using consumer price index (CPI) disaggregated data to improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts. Our forecasting approach is based on extracting the factors from the subcomponents of the CPI at the highest degree of disaggregation. The data set contains...

In this paper, we investigate the interrelationships among Turkish interest rates having different maturities by using a regime-switching vector error correction model. We find a relationship of long-run equilibrium among interest rates having various maturities. Furthermore, we conclude that...