Kroner, Kenneth F.; Kneafsey, Devin P.; Claessens, Stijn; … - Economics Research, World Bank Group - 1993
underlying distribution of prices. The volatility of commodity prices makes price forecasting difficult. Indeed, realized prices … assigning probability ranges requires forecasting future price volatility, which, given uncertainties about true price … distribution, is difficult. One potentially useful source of information for forecasting volatility is the volatility forecasts …