This paper considers the problem of aggregation in the case of large linear dynamic panels, where each micro unit is potentially related to all other micro units, and where micro innovations are allowed to be cross sectionally dependent. Following Pesaran (2003), an optimal aggregate function is...

By representing a system of budget shares as an approximate factor model we determine its rank, i.e. the number of common functional forms, or factors, spanning the space of Engel curves. Once the common factors are estimated via approximate principal components, we identify them by imposing...

We investigate the consequences of using time-invariant individual effects in panel data models when the unobservables are in fact time-varying. Using data from the British Offending Crime and Justice panel, we estimate a dynamic factor model of the occurrence of a range of illicit activities as...

We study the behavior and interaction of systematic and idiosyncratic components of risk in a cross-section of U.K. stocks. We find no clear evidence of a trend in any component of total risk, but we document different “regimes” in the behavior of each component of total risk, in their...

В статье рассматриваются состояние и тенденции изменений в мировых секторах производства и распределения первичных топливо-энергетических ресурсов....

This paper shows consistency of a two step estimation of the factors in a dynamic approximate factor model when the panel of time series is large ( large). In the first step, the parameters of the model are estimated from an OLS on principal components. In the second step, the factors are...

This paper shows consistency of a two step estimation of the factors in a dynamic approximate factor model when the panel of time series is large ( large). In the first step, the parameters of the model are estimated from an OLS on principal components. In the second step, the factors are...

It has been acknowledged that wavelets can constitute a useful tool for forecasting in economics. Through a wavelet multi-resolution analysis, a time series can be decomposed into different timescale components and a model can be fitted to each component to improve the forecast accuracy of the...

We investigate the macro factors that can explain the monthly oil futures return for the NYMEX WTI futures contract for the time period 1993:11 to 2010:03. We build a new database of 187 real and nominal macroeconomic variables from developed and emerging countries and resort to the large factor...