Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz; Lee, Thomas K - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2014
forecasts, however, are obtained when allowing the forecast combinations to vary across forecast horizons. While the latter … no-change forecast and its directional accuracy as high as 73%. Our results are robust to alternative oil price measures … and apply to monthly as well as quarterly forecasts. We illustrate how forecast pooling may be used to produce real …