Rossi, Barbara; Sekhposyan, Tatevik - Duke University, Department of Economics - 2011
This paper proposes forecast optimality tests that can be used in unstable environments. They include tests for … forecast unbiasedness, efficiency, encompassing, serial uncorrelation, and, in general, regression-based tests of forecasting … robust tests suggest more empirical evidence against forecast rationality than previously found but con
firm that the Federal …