The main aim of this paper is to provide forecast intervals for inflation and unemployment rate in Romania, bringing methodological novelties in the construction and evaluation of the prediction intervals. Considering the period 2004-2017 as forecast horizon, only few intervals included the...

The main aim of this paper is to provide forecast intervals for inflation and unemployment rate in Romania, bringing methodological novelties in the construction and evaluation of the prediction intervals. Considering the period 2004-2017 as forecast horizon, only few intervals included the...

The main objective of this study is to assess the uncertainty of daily forecast intervals for highs and lows of WTI crude oil spot prices. For constructing the prediction intervals on the horizon 24th of February 2014-25th of March 2014, different quantitative methods were used, the historical...

Exponential smoothing (ES) with ARCH (autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic) and GARCH (generalized ARCH) errors are introduced. This is done for a large class of ES methods, those for which the forecasts are obtained using a set of additive updating formulas, and also those for which an...