Chang, Chia-Lin; Franses, Philip Hans; McAleer, Michael - Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, … - 2011
Many macro-economic forecasts and forecast updates, such as those from the IMF and OECD, typically involve both a model … hence forecast updates, are progressive, forecast updates should generally become more accurate as the actual value is … approached. Otherwise, learning and forecast updates would be neutral. The paper proposes a methodology to test whether macro …