Armstrong, J. Scott; Green, Kesten C.; Graefe, Andreas - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2014
This paper proposes a unifying theory of forecasting in the form of a Golden Rule of Forecasting. The Golden Rule is to … proliferation of big data have led forecasters to violate the Golden Rule. As a result, despite major advances in forecasting … methods, evidence that forecasting practice has improved over the past half-century is lacking. …