This paper discusses a large-scale factor model for the German economy. Following the recent literature, a data set of 121 time series is used to determine the factors by principal component analysis. The factors enter a linear dynamic model for German GDP. To evaluate its empirical properties,...

This study compares the forecasting performance between Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) non-linear model and the conventional linear Autoregressive (AR) time series model using the simple random walk (SRW) model as the standard reference model. To accomplish this objective, quarterly...

This paper reviews the accuracy of the <I>OECD Economic Outlook projections</I> — both “<I>current year</I>” and “<I>year ahead</I>” — for output growth, inflation and current account balances (as a percentage of GDP) for the major seven countries, as well as projections for world trade growth. The...</i></i></i>

Through the use of a simple turning - point error analysis the study attempts to evaluate the accuracy of OECD forecasts for Greece. Comparing our forecasts using low cost estimation time series forecasting techniques with those of the OECD, we concluded that the OECD should re-examine its...

Judgement based forecasts are widely used in practice either alone or in conjunction with computer prepared forecasts. This study empirically examines the improvement in accuracy which can be gained from combining judgemental forecasts, either with other judgemental or with quantitatively...