In this paper we present a mechanism to elicit and aggregate dispersed information. Our mechanism relies on the aggregation of intervals elicited using an interval scoring rule. We test our mechanism by eliciting beliefs about the termination times of a stochastic process in an experimental...

We extend the repeated observations forecasting ROF analysis of Croushore and Stark 2002 to allow for regressors of possibly higher sampling frequencies than the regressand. For the U.S. GNP quarterly growth rate, we compare the forecasting performances of an AR model with several...

A fundamental question is how to detect likely successful anticancer treatments based on nanotechnology. We confront this question here by analysing the trajectories of nanotechnologies applied to path-breaking cancer treatments, which endeavour to pinpoint ground-breaking and fruitful...