This article evaluates and compares the forecasting performance of three international organizations: the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. The annual forecasts made by the United Nations in the period of 1981-2011 are found to be fairly robust, in terms of bias...

В статье рассмотрена методика краткосрочного прогнозирования экономического результата и связанного с ним риска. Для измерения риска предлагается...

New methods to forecast volatility are usually compared to simple methods like weighted moving averages or GARCH (1, 1) models. In this paper, we provide new benchmark methods which are more accurate but still very simple. In an empirical study of daily returns on major world indices, our new...