We employ a sample of 10,136 Italian micro-, small-, and mid-sized enterprises (MSMEs) that borrow from 113 cooperative banks to examine whether market pricing of publicly listed firms adds additional information to accounting measures in predicting default of private unlisted firms. Through a...

Recent research shows that time-varying volatility plays a crucial role in nonlinear modeling. Contributing to this literature, we suggest a DSGE-GARCH approach that allows for straightforward computation of DSGE models with time-varying volatility, where the volatility component is formulated...

We introduce forecasted unemployment as a state variable that forecasts future macroeconomic activity. Hence, forecasted unemployment is expected to be priced in the cross-section of stock returns. Consistently, we quantify stock exposure to forecasted unemployment and document the importance of...

The imposition of sweeping sanctions against Russia has a negative impact on the entire global economy, contributing to accelerating inflation and slowing economic growth. The decline in GDP growth in most G-20 countries has been influenced, among other things, by tightening of the monetary...

In July, the IMF, the European Commission, and the Asian Development Bank updated their previous world economic development forecasts. In the updated IMF forecast, the global GDP growth rate for 2022 is reduced to 3.2% because of a slowdown in the movement of that indicator in the largest G20...

The aim of this study is to analyze different forecasting approaches for the variance of future earnings, compare the respective forecast accuracy and test whether the forecasted information are relevant to equity or debt markets. The results, in line with former research, indicate that...

We investigate the extent to which international and domestic economic policy uncertainty (EPU) impacts analysts’ earnings forecasts for Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) listed firms. Over a twenty-year period, we demonstrate that EPU is positively associated with analyst coverage, the...

This paper studies the performance of hybrid methods combining normal and non-normal GARCH-type filters with extreme value theory (EVT) in predicting VaRs of four major stock indices in Chinese stock market. Based on the out-of-sample VaR forecasts results over the 24 models considered, we find...

The small open hypothesis suggests that small open economies are crucially affected by foreign economic activity. This study compares the predictive content of traditional financial variables and foreign economic activity for forecasting GDP growth in seven European small open economies during...

The long-memory and nonlinearity coexist in realised volatility. This paper incorporates the linear AR and HAR models with regime-switching models, including the smooth transition and Markov-switching approaches, to assess the forecasting performance of realized volatility. In-sample results...