Accurate real-time macroeconomic data are essential for policy-making and economic nowcasting. In this paper, I introduce a real-time database for German regional economic accounts (READ-GER). The database contains real-time information for nine macroeconomic aggregates and the 16 German states....

Many forecasting methods perform poorly in the case of intermittent demand patterns and high variances in the demand quantity. Strong fluctuations within the time series and a large proportion of zero observations complicate the extraction of trend and seasonality. This research investigates how...

We develop high-frequency indexes to measure sales in service industries and production in the manufacturing sector by using GPS mobility data from mobile applications. First, by utilizing the point of interest data, we develop indicators to capture sales in amusement parks, shopping centers,...

One of the lessons learned from the global financial crisis in 2008 was raising attention to monitoring and maintaining household vulnerability, particularly household credit risk, by using the default rate as the indicator. The indicator would be worsening at the economic recession, likewise,...

Judgement plays a central role in forecasting, as statistical forecasts are often modified before informing user decisions. This is done to augment model forecasts with contextual information from the organisation and the market. There is strong evidence that judgemental adjustments can be...

Machine learning is a growing method for causal inference. In machine learning settings, prediction errors are a commonly overlooked problem that can bias results and lead to arbitrarily incorrect parameter estimates. We consider a two-stage model where (1) machine learning is used to predict...

The credit card customer churn rate is the percentage of a bank’s customers that stop using that bank’s services. Hence, developing a prediction model to predict the expected status for the customers will generate an early alert for banks to change the service for that customer or to offer...

One important problem in the marketing and user growth for businesses is to infer the marginal gains of specific campaigns or strategies, which is crucial for the decision makers to determine whether to carry on or terminate certain policies. However, in most cases the return of gaining...

For the flexible job shop (FJSP) completion time prediction problem considering environmental noise, the mathematical model of the problem, the sample generator and the completion time prediction model based on AE-CNN-LSTM are constructed. Firstly, to address the problem that workshop data is...

Owing to the extremely complex compositions and origins of waste-activated sludge (WAS), the multiple physiochemical properties of WAS have impacts on its dewaterability, and there is a complex interaction relationship among the multiple physiochemical properties, which makes it difficult to...