Die in den letzten Jahren stark gestiegene Inflation beschäftigt nicht nur die Währungshüter, sondern beunruhigt auch Verbraucher:innen und Politik. Der Europäischen Zentralbank wird vorgeworfen, mit ihren Inflationsprognosen in den Jahren 2021 und 2022 die tatsächliche Entwicklung deutlich...

In this paper, I investigate how inflation signals from different types of newspapers influence household inflation expectations in Germany. Using text data and the large language model GPT-3.5-turbo-1106, I construct newspaper-specific indicators and find significant heterogeneity in their...

This paper investigates nowcasting Growth-at-Risk (GaR) using consensus forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) in the US. Incorporating SPF consensus forecasts into the conditional mean of an AR-GARCH type model significantly enhances nowcasting accuracy for GaR and the...

Identifiability of the parameters is an important precondition for consistent estimation of models designed to describe empirical phenomena. Nevertheless, many estimation exercises proceed without a preliminary investigation into the identifiability of its models. As a consequence, the estimates...