This paper revisits the topic of time-scale parameterizations of the Heston-Nandi GARCH (1,1) model to create a new, theoretically valid setting compatible with real financial data. We first estimate parameters using three US market indices and six frequencies to let data reveal the correct,...

This paper examines the use of machine learning methods in modeling and forecasting time series with long memory through GARMA. By employing rigorous model selection criteria through simulation study, we find that the hybrid GARMA-LSTM model outperforms traditional approaches in forecasting...

This study examines the dynamic relationship between inflation, inflation uncertainty, and economic performance in Mexico using the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity-in-Mean (GARCH-M) and bivariate GARCH-in-mean (BGARCH-M) models. Based on monthly data from 1995 to 2019,...

This paper compares the renowned GARCH model with a novel one, the Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS) model in terms of forecasting performance. Considering the gap in the literature, this study focuses on the Turkish stock and FX markets. The analysis covers 25 years (1999-2023), of which...

This study focuses on the precise forecasting of stock price movement to determine returns, diversify risk, and demystify existing opportunities. It also aims to gauge the difference in terms of the stock volatility of various pharma companies before and during the pandemic era. The prediction...

Volatility forecasting for financial institutions plays a pivotal role across a wide range of domains, such as risk management, option pricing, and market making. For instance, banks can incorporate volatility forecasts into stress testing frameworks to ensure they are holding sufficient capital...

The increasing interaction between the equity market and cryptocurrencies has raised concerns about volatility spillovers; however, empirical evidence about sectoral-specific spillover effects in emerging markets is scarce and hard to find. Existing research mainly concentrates on developed...

This study analyses the impact of the Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR) on the volatility of commodity futures returns from 4 January 2010 to 30 June 2023, using Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) models. It expands the research scope to include precious...