A method to predict lightning by postprocessing numerical weather prediction (NWP) output is developed for the region of the European Eastern Alps. Cloud-to-ground-flashes - detected by the ground-based ALDIS network - are counted on the 18x18 km2 grid of the 51-member NWP ensemble of the...

This paper explains the gender differences in self-assessed health status by providing a theoretical identification mechanism through a dynamic structural model which allows for heterogeneity in discount factors of individuals. Theoretical predictions are empirically tested and estimation...

Probability forecasts of binary events are often gathered from multiple models and averaged to provide inputs regarding uncertainty in important decision-making problems. Averages of well calibrated probabilities are underconfident, and methods have been proposed to make them more extreme. To...

This paper explains the gender differences in self-assessed health status by providing a theoretical identification mechanism through a dynamic structural model which allows for heterogeneity in discount factors of individuals. Theoretical predictions are empirically tested and estimation...

We review two complementary mixture-based clustering approaches for modeling unobserved heterogeneity in an insurance portfolio: the generalized linear mixed cluster-weighted model (CWM) and mixture-based clustering for an ordered stereotype model (OSM). The latter is for modeling of ordinal...