Financial times series, and commodity prices in particular, are known to exhibit fat tails in the distribution of prices. As with many natural resources price series, the arrival of new information can lead to unexpectedly rapid changes-or jump-in prices. This suggests that natural resource...

Economic policy uncertainty (EPU) has important implications for crude oil market. To explore the implications, this paper investigates the impact of EPU on the crude oil return volatility and which EPU index has the most forecasting power in crude oil market. To this end, we employ the...

We consider the problem of testing for an omitted multiplicative long-term component in GARCH-type models. Under the alternative there is a two-component model with a short-term GARCH component that fluctuates around a smoothly time-varying long-term component which is driven by the dynamics of...

The study examined stock prices (SP) and exchange rate (ER) interactions with multivariate VAR-GARCH model using monthly data from January 2000 to October 2014. The results of the Engle and Granger and Johansen cointegration test show that there is stable long-term relationship between SP and...

This paper studies the intraday volatility of European government bonds under the framework of the multiplicative component GARCH model (Engle and Sokalska, 2012). Intraday return volatility is specified as the product of daily volatility, intraday seasonality, and a unit GARCH process. The...

This study provides evidence on the common determinants for two prominent features of equity market volatility: its persistence over time and its asymmetric dependence on past returns. We show that daily volatility persistence increases with current returns, especially negative returns. It...

We introduce extensions of the Realized Exponential GARCH model (REGARCH) that capture the evident high persistence typically observed in measures of financial market volatility in a tractable fashion. The extensions decompose conditional variance into a short-term and a long-term component. The...

During the market turmoil, and later in the year 2008, the Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP) decided to discontinue the trading in single stock futures (SSFs) at the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE). On 27th July 2009, trading in SSFs were re-launched in those stocks which passed...

We propose an extension of standard asymmetric volatility models in the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) class that admits conditional non-Gaussianities in a tractable fashion. Our “bad environment-good environment" (BEGE) model utilizes two gamma-distributed...