We analyze the variance risk of commodity markets. We construct synthetic variance swaps and find significantly negative realized and expected variance swap payoffs in most markets. We find evidence of commonalities among the realized payoffs of commodity variance swaps. We also document...

Leveraged exchange-traded funds (LETF) are newly introduced ETFs that have become increasingly popular. It closely tracks the value of an underlying index while allowing for additional leverage. In this paper, we consider the valuation of options written on leveraged exchange-traded funds under...

The paper constructs measures of intra-day realized volatility for 17 European and USA stock indices. We utilize a model-free de-noising method by assembling the realized volatility in sampling frequency selected according to the volatility signature plot which minimizes the micro-structure...

We test the presence of regime changes in the GARCH volatility dynamics of Bitcoin log-returns using Markov-switching GARCH (MSGARCH) models. We also compare MSGARCH to traditional single-regime GARCH specifications in predicting one-day ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR). The Bayesian approach is used...

This paper provides an improved inference for predictive quantile regressions with persistent predictors and conditionally heteroskedastic errors. The confidence intervals based on conventional quantile regression techniques are not valid when predictors are highly persistent. Moreover, the...

We perform a large-scale empirical study to compare the forecasting performance of single-regime and Markov-switching GARCH (MSGARCH) models from a risk management perspective. We find that, for daily, weekly, and ten-day equity log-returns, MSGARCH models yield more accurate Value-at-Risk,...

We consider a portfolio optimization problem of the Black-Litterman type, in which we use the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) as the risk measure and we use the multi-variate elliptical distributions, instead of the multi-variate normal distribution, to model the financial asset returns. We...

In this paper, a detailed proof is provided for the value of compound options based on geometric Brownian motion with maturity varying yields, maturity varying volatility, and maturity varying interest rates. Most research papers focused on compound options do not address yields on the...

We investigate the asymptotic properties of the Gaussian Quasi-Maximum-Likelihood estimator (QMLE) for the Real-time GARCH(1,1) model of Smetanina (2017). The developed theory relies on the new dependence measure developed in Wu (2005) and is substantially different to the standard asymptotic...

The present study examines the linkages between equity indices of India, US, UK, China, Hong Kong, Korea and Japan. Cointegration analysis of Johansen-Juselius with daily data from January 2008 to December 2018 suggests that there is one cointegrating vector as per the Trace statistic. Also,...