Due to its significance, forecasting asset volatility has been an active area of research in recent decades. In this whitepaper we aim to take into account the stylised facts of volatility to improve predictive power of a simple GARCH model. We investigate the power of three GARCH models (GARCH,...

In this study we investigate how the prediction of future volatility is improved by using news (meta)data. We use three input time series, namely: (i) market data, (ii) news sentiment impact scores, as explained by Yu (2014), and (iii) the news volume. We compare the results of predicting...

Understanding the pattern of stock market volatility is important to investors as well as for investment policy. Volatility is directly associated with risks and returns, higher the volatility the more financial market is unstable. The volatility of the Zimbabwean stock market is modeled using...

Purpose – This paper aims to study the daily returns and volatility spillover effects in common stock prices between China and four countries in Southeast Asia (Vietnam, Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia).Design/methodology/approach – The analysis uses a vector autoregression with a bivariate...

A new framework for the joint estimation and forecasting of dynamic Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) is proposed by incorporating intraday information into a generalized autoregressive score (GAS) model, introduced by Patton, Ziegel, and Chen (2019) to estimate risk measures in a...

We examine the effectiveness of GARCH models and the SV model in foreign exchange rates and the stock indices of the BRICS. The empirical analysis is conducted using the daily log returns. The data cover the period 13/05/1999-22/11/2018. The theoretical results are confirmed by running the...

Though the issues of co-movement and volatility transmission between Islamic and conventional stock indices have been extensively studied worldwide, this is the first study in reference to Bangladesh to the best of our knowledge. The broad objective of this paper is to investigate whether...

This paper examines factors that affect the profitability of momentum returns for the US, the UK, Japan, and Germany, for the period 1998-2018. More specifically, the paper examines the impact of factors that have been largely neglected in the relevant literature, such as energy price changes...

Volatility had been used as an indirect means for predicting risk accompanied with the asset. Volatility explains the variations in returns. Forecasting volatility had been a stimulating problem in the financial systems. The study examined the different volatility estimators and determined the...

This paper considers estimation of semi-nonparametric GARCH filtered copula models in which the individual time series are modelled by semi-nonparametric GARCH and the joint distributions of the multivariate standardized innovations are characterized by parametric copulas with nonparametric...