This paper is a continuation of our earlier studies on short-term price forecasting of California electricity prices with time series models. Here we focus on whether models with heavy-tailed innovations perform better in terms of forecasting accuracy than their Gaussian counterparts....

We propose a portfolio selection model based on a generalized hyperbolic predictive distribution. This distribution incorporates uncertainties in mean and volatility of market returns. We then select an optimal portfolio with expected utility calculated under the predictive distribution. We...

In this paper, we introduce a new approach to estimate the subjective distribution of the future short rate from the historical dynamics of futures, based on a model generated by a Normal Inverse Gaussian distribution, with dynamical parameters. The model displays time varying conditional...

Over recent years, study on risk management has been prompted by the Basel committee for regular banking supervisory. There are however limitations of some widely-used risk management methods that either calculate risk measures under the Gaussian distributional assumption or involve numerical...

In this paper we propose the GHADA risk management model that is based on the generalized hyperbolic (GH) distribution and on a nonparametric adaptive methodology. Compared to the normal distribution, the GH distribution possesses semi-heavy tails and represents the financial risk factors more...

In this thesis we propose a risk management methodology to high-dimensional financial portfolios. Instead of estimating the joint density of the portfolios in a high-dimensional space, we are encouraged by using the independent component analysis (ICA) to decompose the dependent risk factors to...

Functional data analysis (FDA) has become a popular technique in applied statistics. In particular, this methodology has received considerable attention in recent studies in empirical finance. In this talk we discuss selected topics of functional principal components analysis that are motivated...

In this paper we identify distributions which suitably fit log-returns of the world stock index (WSI) when these are expressed in units of different currencies. By searching for a best fit in the class of symmetric generalized hyperbolic distributions the maximum likelihood estimates appear to...