I introduce a simple Bayesian methodology to analyze citation metrics across fields of Mathematics. I collect and analyze the MathSciNet http://www.ams.org/mathscinet} profiles of Full Professors of Mathematics at all 131 R1, research oriented US universities. The data recorded was citations,...

In this paper, we study a general model of information acquisition: costly Bayesian learning. Using a menu choice framework, we provide an axiomatic characterization of the model, identify its parameters (a utility function, an increasing transformation, a second-order prior belief, and an...

We present a general methodology based on skew t copulas and Bayesian inference for modelling extreme multivariate dependent losses and the regulatory capital for operational risk. Current approaches fail to model both asymmetric dependence and accurate extreme upper tail dependence (e.g. 99.9%...

We introduce a Bayesian Mixed-Frequency VAR model for the aggregate euro area labour market that features a structural identification via sign restrictions. The purpose of this paper is twofold: we aim at (i) providing reliable and timely forecasts of key labour market variables and (ii)...

We propose new Unconditional, Independence and Conditional Coverage VaR-forecast backtests for the case of annuity pricing under a Bayesian framework that significantly minimise the direct and indirect effects of $p$-hacking or other biased outcomes in decision-making, in general. As a...

Can a group be an orthodox rational agent? This requires the group's aggregate preferences to follow expected utility (static rationality) and to evolve by Bayesian updating (dynamic rationality). Group rationality is possible, but the only preference aggregation rules which achieve it (and are...

Synthetic control methods are a popular tool for measuring the effects of policy interventions on a single treated unit. In practice, researchers create a counterfactual using a linear combination of untreated units that closely mimic the treated unit. Often times, creating a synthetic control...

We investigate a nonatomic game (NG) on top of whose more or less conventional setups there is also a random state of the world. Every player receives only a signal of the state's realization upon which her decision is based. The state of the world, her own action, and the external environment...

The large majority of the work published on firm investment is done in the neoclassical frame of a rational optimizing firm attempting to achieve optimal size. While this frame addresses one important consideration in firm investment, it has two important shortcomings that this paper will...