How does global risk impact the world economy? In taking up this question, we focus on the dollar’s role in the international adjustment mechanism. First, we rely on high-frequency surprises in the price of gold to identify the effects of global risk shocks in a Bayesian Proxy VAR model. They...

Educational outcomes have many determinants, but one that most young people can readily control is choosing whether to work while in school. Sixty-nine studies have estimated the effect, but results vary from large negative to positive estimates. We show that the results are systematically...

We ask whether Bayesian estimation creates a potential estimation bias as compared with standard estimation techniques based on the data, such as maximum likelihood or indirect estimation. We investigate this with a Monte Carlo experiment in which the true version of a New Keynesian model may...

This paper provides a reverse mode derivative for DSGE models. Reverse mode differentiation enables the efficient computation of gradients from the model likelihood to the model parameters. These gradients can then be used by derivative based sampling algorithms including the No U-Turn Sampler....

In this paper, we propose a novel approach to the study of international trade that leads to a measure of country openness that is quite different from the various alternatives proposed by the received literature. In contrast to these, our measure does not use indicators of aggregate trade...

This paper studies the location choice of foreign multinational firms in the Baltic economies of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania using a knowledge-and-physical capital model across 2004-2017. We used the Bayesian model averaging estimation method to investigate a set of possible factors that...

We study the dynamic impact of Covid-19, economic mobility, and containment policy shocks. We use Bayesian panel structural vector autoregressions with daily data for 44 countries, identified through sign and zero restrictions. Incidence and mobility shocks raise cases and deaths significantly...