A crucial role belongs to export firms in the export-led growth model of Vietnam. The COVID-19 disease has posed a serious challenge to the Vietnamese economy, having negatively impacted its influential export sector. However, investigating this export sector encounters small sample issues...

Financial shocks represent a major driver of fluctuations in tail risk, defined as the 5th percentile of the forecast distributions of output and inflation. Since the variance and the asymmetry of the forecast distributions are largely driven by the left tail, financial shocks turn out to play a...

Bayesian predictive synthesis is a flexible method of combining density predictions. The flexibility comes from the ability to choose an arbitrary synthesis function to combine predictions. I study the choice of synthesis function when combining large numbers of predictions-a common occurrence...

We propose a demand estimation method that allows for a large number of zerosale observations, rich unobserved heterogeneity, and endogenous prices. We do so by modeling small market sizes through Poisson arrivals. Each of these arriving consumers solves a standard discrete choice problem. We...