We study a model of Bayesian persuasion where the sender cannot commit a signal to the receiver so that he can lie on the signal. The sender can choose an announced signal differently from a private real signal and should bear a cost of lying. The receiver only observes the announced signal and...

Endogeneity and correlated alternatives are major concerns to be addressed in travel behavior analysis. However, these issues have been rarely dealt with simultaneously in advanced discrete choice models. This study proposed a multinomial probit model that incorporates the instrumental variable...

A Bayesian typically uses data and a prior to produce a posterior. We shall follow the opposite route, using data and the posterior information to reveal the prior. We apply the theory by inferring the Bank of England’s priors when forecasting UK inflation

Modelling mortality co-movements for multiple populations has significant implications for mortality/longevity risk management. This paper considers a population composed of heterogeneous sub-populations that exhibit various patterns of mortality dynamics across different age groups. We propose...

This note provides sufficient conditions for the existence of equilibrium in a class of extended Bayesian persuasion models. We consider a framework in which a single sender discloses public information to n receivers. After observing the sender’s signal, the receivers update their beliefs to...

Meritocracy is a prominent fairness view in many societies, but often difficult to apply because there is limited information about the source of inequality. This paper studies theoretically and empirically how limited information affects inequality acceptance. We connect the literatures on...

Gender differences in self-confidence could explain women's under representation in high-income occupations and glass-ceiling effects. We draw lessons from the economic literature via a survey of experts and a Bayesian hierarchical model that aggregates experimental findings over the last twenty...

In this paper we exploit properties of the likelihood function of the stochastic volatility model to show that it can be approximated accurately and efficiently using a response surface methodology. The approximation is across the plausible range of parameter values and all possible data and is...

In recent years, sustainability in supply chains is becoming increasingly more important, and deploying accurate enablers for achieving sustainability is a considerable issue. In this study, a data-driven method is employed to effectively select the enablers of the sustainable supply chain...

This paper suggests a new normative approach for combining beliefs. We call it the evidence-first method. Instead of aggregating credences alone, as the prevailing approaches, we focus instead on eliciting a group's full probability distribution on the basis of the evidence available to its...