We propose a method to adjust for data outliers in Bayesian Vector Autoregressions (BVARs), which allows for different outlier magnitudes across variables and rescales the reduced form error terms. We use the method to document several facts about the effect of outliers on estimation and...

Several Phillips curves based on sticky information and sticky prices are estimated and compared using Bayesian VAR-GMM. This method derives expectations in each Phillips curve from a VAR and estimates the Phillips curve parameters and the VAR coefficients simultaneously. Quasi-marginal...

Most studies in Vietnam use the Cobb-Douglas production function and its modifications for economic analysis. Extremely rigid presumptions are a main weak point of this functional form, particularly if the elasticity of factor substitution (ES) is equal to one, which hides the role of the ES for...

This paper develops a Bayesian framework for the realized exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (realized EGARCH) model and adopts a standardized Student-t and a standardized skewed Student-t distributions for the return equation. The Bayesian estimators show more...

Asset returns exhibit grouped heterogeneity, and a “one-size-fits-all” model has been elusive empirically. This paper proposes a Bayesian Clustering Model (BCM) combining Bayesian factor selection and panel tree for asset clustering. The Bayesian model marginal likelihood guides the tree...

Uncertain knowledge allows us to learn new knowledge and leads us to develop a new domain model. The medical domain is a very crucial area of research where a wrong decision taken by a physician can create a significant health issue. Based on patient sensations and certain conventional...

In-line defect inspection is employed to monitor tool health via sampling an in-line processing lot every fixed period, and avoid suffering large quality loss when the production tools are abnormal. However, defect inspection is a time-consuming process including lot movement, defect scan, and...

How people attribute the others’ previous actions often influences their feeling of inequality and then their subsequent responses. In a bilateral ultimatum bargaining game with both inequality aversion and incomplete information, a greedy offer can be attributed to either the proposer’s...

We consider collective decisions under uncertainty, when agents have "generalized Hurwicz" preferences, a broad class allowing many different ambiguity attitudes, including subjective expected utility preferences. We consider sequences of acts that are “almost-objectively uncertain” in the...

This article is the second of a series discussing the Bayesian Network representation of multivariate normal distributions. In the first article we introduced a cascading regressions model leading to a Bayesian network representation of any joint normal distribution [Pap22]. A joint normal...