The paper uses survey data to analyze whether financial market expectations on government budget deficits changed in France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom during the period of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). Our findings indicate that accuracy of financial expert deficit forecasts...

A stochastic debt forecasting framework is presented where projected debt distributions reflect both the joint realization of the fiscal policy reaction to contemporaneous stochastic macroeconomic projections, and also the second-round effects of fiscal policy on macroeconomic projections. The...

In the classical linear regression model the problem of testing for symmetry of the error distribution is considered. The test statistic is a functional of the difference between the two empirical distribution functions of the estimated residuals and their counterparts with opposite signs. The...

In this paper, we consider three major types of nonparametric regression tests that are based on kernel and local polynomial smoothing techniques. Their asymptotic power comparisons are established systematically under the fixed and contiguous alternatives, and are also illustrated through...

We study the problem of testing the error distribution in a multivariate linear regression (MLR) model. The tests are functions of appropriately standardized multivariate least squares residuals whose distribution is invariant to the unknown cross-equation error covariance matrix. Empirical...

We study the problem of testing the error distribution in a multivariate linear regression (MLR) model. The tests are functions of appropriately standardized multivariate least squares residuals whose distribution is invariant to the unknown cross-equation error covariance matrix. Empirical...

In this paper, we consider three major types of nonparametric regression tests that are based on kernel and local polynomial smoothing techniques. Their asymptotic power comparisons are established systematically under the fixed and contiguous alternatives, and are also illustrated through...