A continuous time econometric modelling framework for multivariate financial market event (or `transactions') data is developed in which the model is specified via the vector stochastic intensity. This has the advantage that the conditioning sigma-field is updated continuously in time as new...

(WP 04/03 Clave pdf) Thurstone´s (1927) is not a proper model for multiple judgment paired comparison data as it assigns zero probabilities to all intransitive patterns. To obtain a proper model, Takane (1987) extended Thurstone´s model by adding a vector of pair specific random errors. We...

(WP03/03 Clave pdf) We consider the estimation of multivariate normal structural models that have been discretized according to a set of thresholds. A popular estimation procedure for this restricted multinomial model consists in the following three stage estimator: First, estimate by maximum...

This paper examines the factors affecting the persistence of fiscal consolidation in 25 emerging market countries during 1980-2001. It proposes a new approach for defining spells of fiscal consolidation. The results indicate that the probability of ending a fiscal adjustment is affected by the...

This paper attempts to predict the incidence of arrears to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) by modifying and applying two of the major early warning systems for currency crises: the "signals" approach proposed by Kaminsky, Lizondo, and Reinhart (1997) and the probit-based alternative...

This paper reviews recent advances in the specification and estimation of Bayesian Vector Autoregressive models (BVARs). After describing the Bayesian principle of estimation, we first present the methodology originally developed by Litterman (1986) and Doan et al. (1984) and review alternative...

Dollarization in Russia increased rapidly during the early 1990s, but failed to come down in the second half of the 1990s in spite of exchange rate stabilization. To explain this "dollarization hysteresis," this paper develops a model in which network externalities in the demand for currency can...

The medium-term predictability of exchange rate movements is examined using three models of fundamentals: purchasing power parity, the monetary model, and uncovered interest parity. While the first two approaches yield favorable in-sample results, these largely reflect finite-sample estimation...

A stochastic volatility model where volatility was driven solely by a latent variable called news was estimated for three stock indices. A Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm was used for estimating Bayesian parameters and filtering volatilities. Volatility persistence being close to one was...