The need to address current and future energy needs along with economic growth has raised concerns about the causal relationship between the use of energy and economic growth worldwide. Our study aims to contribute to the current debates on the existence, direction and impact of the causal...

Multiple global crises—including the pandemic, climate change, and Russia’s war on Ukraine—have recently linked together in ways that are significant in scope, devastating in effect, but poorly understood. A growing number of scholars and policymakers characterize the situation as a...

We describe a framework for empirical welfare analysis that uses the causal estimates of a policy’s impact on net government spending. This framework provides guidance for which causal effects are (and are not) needed for empirical welfare analysis of public policies.The key ingredient is the...

This paper develops a machine-learning method that allows researchers to estimate heterogeneous treatment effects with panel data in a setting with many covariates. Our method, which we name the dynamic causal forest (DCF) method, extends the causal-forest method of Wager and Athey (2018) by...

Two-way fixed effects (TWFE) regressions with period and group fixed effects are widely used to estimate policies' effects: 26 of the 100 most cited papers published by the American Economic Review from 2015 to 2019 estimate such regressions. Researchers have long thought that TWFE estimators...

This paper introduces a new bootstrap approach to the construction of confidence regions for Average Treatment Effect (ATE) identified sets. Minimum Hausdorff distance bootstrap confidence regions are developed and shown to be valid under suitable regularity. A novel measure of the discrepancy...

Under correlated heterogeneity, the commonly used two-way fixed effects estimator is biased and can lead to misleading inference. This paper proposes a new trimmed mean group (TMG) estimator which is consistent at the irregular rate of n 1/3 even if the time dimension of the panel is as small as...