Total tourist arrivals are the sum of disaggregate subcomponent arrivals by country of origin. We use seven time-series models to assess whether the aggregate approach that directly forecasts the total tourist arrivals outperforms the disaggregate approach that produces the total arrival...

In this paper we propose a new set of multivariate stochastic models that capture time varying seasonality within the vector innovations structural time series (VISTS) framework. These models encapsulate exponential smoothing methods in a multivariate setting. The models considered are the local...

Exponential smoothing methods are very commonly used for forecasting demand. Regarding the process of forecasting demand, the main approach towards the selection and optimisation of alternative methods relates to the minimisation of forecast error measures such as the mean square error (MSE)....