In this paper we propose a new set of multivariate stochastic models that capture time varying seasonality within the vector innovations structural time series (VISTS) framework. These models encapsulate exponential smoothing methods in a multivariate setting. The models considered are the local...

As a material production branch, agriculture features certain particularities that are essentially different from those of the other sectors of national economy, namely: active role in land operation, which increases the capacity of obtaining high yields by rational land use and use of technical...

Exponential smoothing methods are very commonly used for forecasting demand. Regarding the process of forecasting demand, the main approach towards the selection and optimisation of alternative methods relates to the minimisation of forecast error measures such as the mean square error (MSE)....

The state space approach to modelling univariate time series is now widely used both in theory and in applications. However, the very richness of the framework means that quite different model formulations are possible, even when they purport to describe the same phenomena. In this paper, we...