Reserving in general insurance is often done using chain-ladder-type methods. We propose a method aimed at situations where there is a sudden change in the economic environment affecting the policies for all accident years in the reserving triangle. It is shown that methods for forecasting...

Concern has intensified in recent years that many instrumental variables used in widely-cited growth regressions may be invalid, weak, or both. Attempts to remedy this general problem remain inadequate. We demonstrate that a range of published growth regressions may contain spurious results...

In multiple regressions, explanatory variables with simple correlation coefficients with the dependent variable below 0.1 in absolute value (such as aid/gross domestic product (GDP) with GDP growth) face a problem of parameter identification. They may have very large, statistically significant,...