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Bayesian 1 In&#xfb02 1 ation 1 lter 1 particle &#xfb01 1 professional forecasts 1 sticky information 1 stochastic volatility 1 time-varying parameters 1 unobservedcomponents 1
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Mertens, Elmar 1 Nason, James Michael 1
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Inflation and professional forecast dynamics: An evaluation of stickiness, persistence, and volatility
Mertens, Elmar; Nason, James Michael - In: Quantitative Economics 11 (2020) 4, pp. 1485-1520
This paper studies the joint dynamics of U.S. inflation and a term structure of average inflation predictions taken from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). We estimate these joint dynamics by combining an unobserved components (UC) model of inflation and a sticky-information forecast...
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