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Decision making 1 Density forecasts 1 Incentive-compatible compensation scheme 1 Loss function 1 Piecewise linear 1 Proper scoring rule 1 Quantile 1
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Gneiting, Tilmann 1
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International Journal of Forecasting 1
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Quantiles as optimal point forecasts
Gneiting, Tilmann - In: International Journal of Forecasting 27 (2011) 2, pp. 197-207
Loss functions play a central role in the theory and practice of forecasting. If the loss function is quadratic, the mean of the predictive distribution is the unique optimal point predictor. If the loss is symmetric piecewise linear, any median is an optimal point forecast. Quantiles arise as...
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