"Uncertainty" indicated a critical post Keynesian argument against neoclassical monetarism, but was taken up by the European Central Bank (ECB) in order to emphasize the importance of the money supply indicator in its "two pillar" strategy. In a state of model uncertainty on behalf of market and...

This paper decomposes the break-even inflation rates derived from inflation-indexed bonds into inflation risk premia, liquidity risk premia, and inflation expectations. I estimate a common factor model with autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic (ARCH) errors that extracts co-movements...

This paper shows that an economy’s behavior differs significantly according to assumptions made on the formation of inflation expectations. We analyzed the behavior of an open economy in a regime of explicit inflation targeting with commitment. The economy is exposed to three different shocks...

This paper examines the theory of the Phillips curve, focusing on the distinction between “formation” of inflation expectations and “incorporation” of inflation expectations. Phillips curve theory has largely focused on the former. Explaining the Phillips curve by reference to...

The article analyzes the factors leading to the fall of forward interest rates in the Czech Republic between 1999 and 2003. A key point in this regard is the existence of a term and a regime-shift premium associated with the country’s anticipated entry into the eurozone. The paper suggests...