The return of high inflation in Latin America (and worldwide) since 2021 has renewed concerns about the persistence of above-target inflation and a potential de-anchoring of inflation expectations. This paper shows that trend inflation estimation using forward-looking information can offer...

This paper empirically analyzes the key drivers of inflation in Kazakhstan by differentiating between demand and supply-driven factors contributing to headline inflation. Given that Kazakhstan is highly sensitive to adverse external fluctuations (due to its economic structure), our empirical...

Recent empirical evidence shows that most international prices are sticky in dollars. This paper studies the policy implications of this fact in the context of an open economy model, allowing for an arbitrary structure of asset markets, general preferences and technologies, time- or...

We study the impact of market incompleteness and bounded rationality on the effectiveness of make-up strategies. To do so, we simulate a heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian (HANK) model with reflective expectations and an occasionally-binding effective lower bound (ELB) on the policy rate. Our...

The rise in inflation in 2021-22 sparked a growing literature and debate over the causes of the surge as well as the near- and medium-term path for inflation. This review offers three key messages. First, the exceptional nature of shocks resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical...

Foreign price shocks have significant effects on functional income distribution and on inflation inequality. By increasing prices in domestic currency that are linked to foreign prices, they increase the profit share in some sectors and reduce real wages, in particular of workers whose...

Inflation Targeting Central Banks announce official inflation targets or forecasts and attempt to achieve price stability by anchoring the inflation expectations of the agents. The agents in turn align their expectations with the announced inflation target or forecast only if they believe that...