A stylized fact of US inflation dynamics is one of extreme persistence and possible unit root behavior. If so, the implications for macroeconomics and monetary policy are somewhat unpalatable. Our econometric analysis proposes a parsimonious representation of the inflation process, the nonlinear...

The current paper aims at estimating the formation mechanism of business inflation expectations to find out how the latter affect the inflation dynamics. To attain this goal, the authors estimated the traditional Phillips curve, new Keynesian Phillips curve and hybrid Phillips curve. The results...

We estimate the approximate nonlinear solution of a small DSGE model on euro area data, using the conditional particle filter to compute the model likelihood. Our results are consistent with previous findings, based on simulated data, suggesting that this approach delivers sharper inference...

Models in which firms use a rule of thumb or partial indexing in price setting are prominent in the recent monetary policy literature. The extent to which these firms adjust their prices to lagged inflation has been taken as fixed. We consider the implications of firms choosing the optimal...

This paper argues that existing empirical models of interest rate rules are too simplistic. The hybrid Phillips curve implies that policymakers should respond to both current and expected future inflation rates, in contrast to existing models. We provide evidence that UK policymakers do this.

This paper shows that a hybrid of the sticky-price and sticky-information models of price adjustment is able to deliver a hump-shaped inflation response to monetary shocks without counterfactually implying, as in Mankiw and Reis (2002) or Altig et al. (2005), that individual firms' prices change...