The Turkish economy is typically characterized as having particularly high real interest rates. Fundamental considerations, such as high growth rates or high returns to capital, do not provide a satisfactory resolution of this puzzle. Instead, we find that two other factors- doubts about the...

This is the first of a series of papers that are being written as part of a project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we estimate a small...

This is the third of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we estimate a small...

This 2008 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Ethiopian economy has been growing rapidly in the last four years. Favorable weather conditions and pro-growth policies have helped sustain recovery from a sharp drought-related contraction in 2002/03. Growth has averaged 11 percent since...

This paper presents a simple structural model of inflation adapted for Nigeria based on the methodology of Berg, Karam, and Laxton. This approach allows different policy options to be considered systematically in a baseline forecasting exercise. The development and calibration of this model are...

Sound policies and favorable external conditions have led to a strong economic recovery, but important challenges lie ahead. Uruguay’s near-term economic prospects are generally favorable. The main short-term challenge is rising inflation in the wake of vigorous growth and capital...

The Czech Republic’s strong fundamentals helped to sustain economic growth with low unemployment and underpin strides toward convergence with EU-15. Executive Directors welcomed the euro accession strategy and the sustained implementation of the Maastricht criteria, which would provide a...

This paper examines the inflation expectations, monetary policy credibility, and dollarization. Country fundamentals have explained variation in sovereign spreads, but external factors play an important role. This paper assesses the role of and prospects for bank-lending from a cyclical and...

Uruguay has experienced a remarkable recovery since the 2002 crisis, supported by sound policies and favorable external conditions. With the framework put in place in 2002, Uruguay abandoned an exchange rate peg in favor of a free float, adoped a monetary regime initially based on money targets,...

The People's Bank of China (PBC) has made great strides in modernizing its monetary policy frameworks but their effectiveness will diminish as the sophistication of the economy increases. Empirical evidence supports maintaining a reference to money in China's monetary strategy and enhancing the...