This paper presents an optimization approach-residual-based bootstrap averaging (RBBA)-for different types of forecast ensembles. Unlike traditional residual-mean-square-error-based ensemble forecast averaging approaches, the RBBA method attempts to find optimal forecast weights in an ensemble...

Overconfidence behavior, one form of positive illusion, has drawn considerable attention throughout history because it is viewed as the main reason for many crises. Investors' overconfidence, which can be observed as overtrading following positive returns, may lead to inefficiencies in stock...

This article forms an attempt to expand the ability of online search queries to predict initial jobless claims in the United States and further explore the intricacies of Google Trends. In contrast to researchers who used only a small number of search queries or limited themselves to job agency...

The article compares ARMA, boosting, neural network models, GARCH and HAR models, and proposes a new efficient method for forecasting one day ahead of the realized volatility of financial series. The GARCH and HAR models are taken as comparable models, which showed the best results in Manevich...