Today's economy is characterized by increased competition, faster product development and increased product differentiation. As a consequence product lifecycles become shorter and demand patterns become more volatile which especially affects the retail industry. This new situation imposes...

This paper proposes a unifying theory of forecasting in the form of a Golden Rule of Forecasting. The Golden Rule is to be conservative. A conservative forecast is consistent with cumulative knowledge about the present and the past. To be conservative, forecasters must seek all knowledge...

Today's economy is characterized by increased competition, faster product development and increased product differentiation. As a consequence product lifecycles become shorter and demand patterns become more volatile which especially affects the retail industry. This new situation imposes...

We compared Turkish and English students' soccer forecasting for English soccer matches. Although the Turkish students knew very little about English soccer, they selected teams on the basis of familiarity with the team (or its identified city); their prediction success was surprisingly similar...

This study uses quantile regressions to estimate historical forecast error distributions forWASDE forecasts of corn, soybean, and wheat prices, and then compute confidencelimits for the forecasts based on the empirical distributions. Quantile regressions with fiterrors expressed as a function of...

This study uses quantile regressions to estimate historical forecast error distributions for WASDE forecasts of corn, soybean, and wheat prices, and then compute confidence limits for the forecasts based on the empirical distributions. Quantile regressions with fit errors expressed as a function...

This paper investigates forecasting performance and judgmental processes of experts and non-experts in soccer. Two circumstances motivated the paper: (i) little is known about how accurately experts predict sports events, and (ii) recent research on human judgment suggests that ignorance-based...