In this paper, we use simulated data to investigate the power of different causality tests in a two-dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) model. The data are presented in a non-linear environment that is modelled using a logistic smooth transition autoregressive (LSTAR) function. We use both...

This paper considers the use of smooth transition autoregressive models for forecasting. First, the modelling of time series with these nonlinear models is discussed. Techniques for obtaining multiperiod forecasts are presented. The usefulness of forecast densities in the case of nonlinear...