We re-examine the causality between the twin deficits by testing for Granger non-causality between BD and CAD based on extended causality tests initially developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995). Using international data from a sample of twenty developed and developing countries, we find evidence...

The universal method for testing linearity against smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) alternatives is the linearization of the STAR model around the null nuisance parameter value, and performing F-tests on polynomial regressions in the spirit of the RESET test. Polynomial regressors,...

We study empirically daily French and German interest rate changes since the Basle-Nyborg agreement of September 1987. In particular, we ask whether the shock associated with German unification altered the degree of leadership of German monetary policy in the ERM. We conclude that Germany’s...

This paper provides indirect tests of the hypothesis that exchange rate movements may be largely coterminus with changes in preferences for holding claims on different countries. It is argued that changes in country preferences will be reflected systematically in the price of gold and, hence,...

This paper studies the implications of the imperfect credibility of an exchange rate target zone on the term structure of forward premia. The relationship between spot and forward exchange rates of different maturities reflects the possibility of repeated realignments of the exchange rate band....

We propose a data-based extremum formulation that extends theempirical-likelihood and information-theoretic methods of estimation andinference. It is demonstrated how this method may be used in a general linearmodel context to mitigate the problem of an ill-conditioned design matrix. Adual loss...